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Data-Driven Stochastic Modeling Using Autoregressive Sequence Models: Translating Event Tables to Queueing Dynamics

Mittal, Daksh, Zheng, Shunri, Dong, Jing, Namkoong, Hongseok

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While queueing network models are powerful tools for analyzing service systems, they traditionally require substantial human effort and domain expertise to construct. To make this modeling approach more scalable and accessible, we propose a data-driven framework for queueing network modeling and simulation based on autoregressive sequence models trained on event-stream data. Instead of explicitly specifying arrival processes, service mechanisms, or routing logic, our approach learns the conditional distributions of event types and event times, recasting the modeling task as a problem of sequence distribution learning. We show that Transformer-style architectures can effectively parameterize these distributions, enabling automated construction of high-fidelity simulators. As a proof of concept, we validate our framework on event tables generated from diverse queueing networks, showcasing its utility in simulation, uncertainty quantification, and counterfactual evaluation. Leveraging advances in artificial intelligence and the growing availability of data, our framework takes a step toward more automated, data-driven modeling pipelines to support broader adoption of queueing network models across service domains.


A Survey on Agentic Service Ecosystems: Measurement, Analysis, and Optimization

Zhang, Xuwen, Xue, Xiao, Xie, Xia, Ma, Qun, Yu, Xiangning, Zhou, Deyu, Wang, Yifan, Zhang, Ming

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The Agentic Service Ecosystem consists of heterogeneous autonomous agents (e.g., intelligent machines, humans, and human-machine hybrid systems) that interact through resource exchange and service co-creation. These agents, with distinct behaviors and motivations, exhibit autonomous perception, reasoning, and action capabilities, which increase system complexity and make traditional linear analysis methods inadequate. Swarm intelligence, characterized by decentralization, self-organization, emergence, and dynamic adaptability, offers a novel theoretical lens and methodology for understanding and optimizing such ecosystems. However, current research, owing to fragmented perspectives and cross-ecosystem differences, fails to comprehensively capture the complexity of swarm-intelligence emergence in agentic contexts. The lack of a unified methodology further limits the depth and systematic treatment of the research. This paper proposes a framework for analyzing the emergence of swarm intelligence in Agentic Service Ecosystems, with three steps: measurement, analysis, and optimization, to reveal the cyclical mechanisms and quantitative criteria that foster emergence. By reviewing existing technologies, the paper analyzes their strengths and limitations, identifies unresolved challenges, and shows how this framework provides both theoretical support and actionable methods for real-world applications.


A Framework for Analyzing Abnormal Emergence in Service Ecosystems Through LLM-based Agent Intention Mining

Shen, Yifan, Zhao, Zihan, Xue, Xiao, Guo, Yuwei, Ma, Qun, Zhou, Deyu, Zhang, Ming

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the rise of service computing, cloud computing, and IoT, service ecosystems are becoming increasingly complex. The intricate interactions among intelligent agents make abnormal emergence analysis challenging, as traditional causal methods focus on individual trajectories. Large language models offer new possibilities for Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) through Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning to reveal agent intentions. However, existing approaches remain limited to microscopic and static analysis. This paper introduces a framework: Emergence Analysis based on Multi-Agent Intention (EAMI), which enables dynamic and interpretable emergence analysis. EAMI first employs a dual-perspective thought track mechanism, where an Inspector Agent and an Analysis Agent extract agent intentions under bounded and perfect rationality. Then, k-means clustering identifies phase transition points in group intentions, followed by a Intention Temporal Emergence diagram for dynamic analysis. The experiments validate EAMI in complex online-to-offline (O2O) service system and the Stanford AI Town experiment, with ablation studies confirming its effectiveness, generalizability, and efficiency. This framework provides a novel paradigm for abnormal emergence and causal analysis in service ecosystems. The code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/EAMI-B085.


Enhancing Web Service Anomaly Detection via Fine-grained Multi-modal Association and Frequency Domain Analysis

Yang, Xixuan, Huang, Xin, Duan, Chiming, Jia, Tong, Dong, Shandong, Li, Ying, Huang, Gang

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Anomaly detection is crucial for ensuring the stability and reliability of web service systems. Logs and metrics contain multiple information that can reflect the system's operational state and potential anomalies. Thus, existing anomaly detection methods use logs and metrics to detect web service systems' anomalies through data fusion approaches. They associate logs and metrics using coarse-grained time window alignment and capture the normal patterns of system operation through reconstruction. However, these methods have two issues that limit their performance in anomaly detection. First, due to asynchrony between logs and metrics, coarse-grained time window alignment cannot achieve a precise association between the two modalities. Second, reconstruction-based methods suffer from severe overgeneralization problems, resulting in anomalies being accurately reconstructed. In this paper, we propose a novel anomaly detection method named FFAD to address these two issues. On the one hand, FFAD employs graph-based alignment to mine and extract associations between the modalities from the constructed log-metric relation graph, achieving precise associations between logs and metrics. On the other hand, we improve the model's fit to normal data distributions through Fourier Frequency Focus, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of anomaly detection. We validated the effectiveness of our model on two real-world industrial datasets and one open-source dataset. The results show that our method achieves an average anomaly detection F1-score of 93.6%, representing an 8.8% improvement over previous state-of-the-art methods.


Performance Issue Identification in Cloud Systems with Relational-Temporal Anomaly Detection

Gu, Wenwei, Liu, Jinyang, Chen, Zhuangbin, Zhang, Jianping, Su, Yuxin, Gu, Jiazhen, Feng, Cong, Yang, Zengyin, Lyu, Michael

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Performance issues permeate large-scale cloud service systems, which can lead to huge revenue losses. To ensure reliable performance, it's essential to accurately identify and localize these issues using service monitoring metrics. Given the complexity and scale of modern cloud systems, this task can be challenging and may require extensive expertise and resources beyond the capacity of individual humans. Some existing methods tackle this problem by analyzing each metric independently to detect anomalies. However, this could incur overwhelming alert storms that are difficult for engineers to diagnose manually. To pursue better performance, not only the temporal patterns of metrics but also the correlation between metrics (i.e., relational patterns) should be considered, which can be formulated as a multivariate metrics anomaly detection problem. However, most of the studies fall short of extracting these two types of features explicitly. Moreover, there exist some unlabeled anomalies mixed in the training data, which may hinder the detection performance. To address these limitations, we propose the Relational- Temporal Anomaly Detection Model (RTAnomaly) that combines the relational and temporal information of metrics. RTAnomaly employs a graph attention layer to learn the dependencies among metrics, which will further help pinpoint the anomalous metrics that may cause the anomaly effectively. In addition, we exploit the concept of positive unlabeled learning to address the issue of potential anomalies in the training data. To evaluate our method, we conduct experiments on a public dataset and two industrial datasets. RTAnomaly outperforms all the baseline models by achieving an average F1 score of 0.929 and Hit@3 of 0.920, demonstrating its superiority.


Meta-Generalization for Multiparty Privacy Learning to Identify Anomaly Multimedia Traffic in Graynet

Kamo, Satoshi, Sheng, Yiqiang

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Identifying anomaly multimedia traffic in cyberspace is a big challenge in distributed service systems, multiple generation networks and future internet of everything. This letter explores meta-generalization for a multiparty privacy learning model in graynet to improve the performance of anomaly multimedia traffic identification. The multiparty privacy learning model in graynet is a globally shared model that is partitioned, distributed and trained by exchanging multiparty parameters updates with preserving private data. The meta-generalization refers to discovering the inherent attributes of a learning model to reduce its generalization error. In experiments, three meta-generalization principles are tested as follows. The generalization error of the multiparty privacy learning model in graynet is reduced by changing the dimension of byte-level imbedding. Following that, the error is reduced by adapting the depth for extracting packet-level features. Finally, the error is reduced by adjusting the size of support set for preprocessing traffic-level data. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposal outperforms the state-of-the-art learning models for identifying anomaly multimedia traffic.


How Can Subgroup Discovery Help AIOps?

Remil, Youcef

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The genuine supervision of modern IT systems brings new challenges as it requires higher standards of scalability, reliability and efficiency when analysing and monitoring big data streams. Rule-based inference engines are a key component of maintenance systems in detecting anomalies and automating their resolution. However, they remain confined to simple and general rules and cannot handle the huge amount of data, nor the large number of alerts raised by IT systems, a lesson learned from expert systems era. Artificial Intelligence for Operation Systems (AIOps) proposes to take advantage of advanced analytics and machine learning on big data to improve and automate every step of supervision systems and aid incident management in detecting outages, identifying root causes and applying appropriate healing actions. Nevertheless, the best AIOps techniques rely on opaque models, strongly limiting their adoption. As a part of this PhD thesis, we study how Subgroup Discovery can help AIOps. This promising data mining technique offers possibilities to extract interesting hypothesis from data and understand the underlying process behind predictive models. To ensure relevancy of our propositions, this project involves both data mining researchers and practitioners from Infologic, a French software editor.


Queue-Learning: A Reinforcement Learning Approach for Providing Quality of Service

Raeis, Majid, Tizghadam, Ali, Leon-Garcia, Alberto

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

End-to-end delay is a critical attribute of quality of service (QoS) in application domains such as cloud computing and computer networks. This metric is particularly important in tandem service systems, where the end-to-end service is provided through a chain of services. Service-rate control is a common mechanism for providing QoS guarantees in service systems. In this paper, we introduce a reinforcement learning-based (RL-based) service-rate controller that provides probabilistic upper-bounds on the end-to-end delay of the system, while preventing the overuse of service resources. In order to have a general framework, we use queueing theory to model the service systems. However, we adopt an RL-based approach to avoid the limitations of queueing-theoretic methods. In particular, we use Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG) to learn the service rates (action) as a function of the queue lengths (state) in tandem service systems. In contrast to existing RL-based methods that quantify their performance by the achieved overall reward, which could be hard to interpret or even misleading, our proposed controller provides explicit probabilistic guarantees on the end-to-end delay of the system. The evaluations are presented for a tandem queueing system with non-exponential inter-arrival and service times, the results of which validate our controller's capability in meeting QoS constraints.